Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
