Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.